Last year was the hottest on record and the Earth is headed towards a global warming of 2.7 degrees, yet top fossil fuel and cement producers show a disregard for climate change and actively make things worse. A new Carbon Majors Database report found that just 57 companies were responsible for 80 percent of the global carbon dioxide emissions between 2016 and 2022. Thirty-eight percent of total emissions during this period came from nation-states, 37 percent from state-owned entities and 25 percent from investor-owned companies.
Nearly 200 parties adopted the 2015 Paris Agreement, committing to reduce greenhouse gas emissions. However, 58 of the 100 state- and investor-owned companies in the Carbon Majors Database have increased their production in the years since (The Climate Accountability Institute launched Carbon Majors in 2013 to hold fossil fuel producers accountable and is hosted by InfluenceMap). This number represents producers worldwide, including 87 percent of those assessed in Asia, 57 percent in Europe and 43 percent in North America.
It's not a clear case of things slowly turning around, either. The International Energy Agency found coal consumption increased by eight percent over the seven years to 8.3 billion tons — a record high. The report names state-owned Coal India as one of the top three carbon dioxide producers. Russia's state-owned energy company Gazprom and state-owned oil firm Saudi Aramco rounded out the trio of worst offenders.
Exxon Mobil topped the list of United States companies, contributing 1.4 percent of global carbon dioxide emissions. "These companies have made billions of dollars in profits while denying the problem and delaying and obstructing climate policy. They are spending millions on advertising campaigns about being part of a sustainable solution, all the while continuing to invest in more fossil fuel extraction," Tzeporah Berman, International Program Director at Stand.earth and Chair at Fossil Fuel Non-Proliferation Treaty, said in a statement. "These findings emphasize that, more than ever, we need our governments to stand up to these companies, and we need new international cooperation through a Fossil Fuel Treaty to end the expansion of fossil fuels and ensure a truly just transition."
This article originally appeared on Engadget at https://www.engadget.com/only-57-companies-produced-80-percent-of-global-carbon-dioxide-130752291.html?src=rss
Since 1979, Arctic ice has shrunk by 1.35 million square miles, a new JPL study found ice loss in Greenland is far worse than previously thought and Antarctic ice is now at the lowest level since records began. The more they melt, the faster the rate of decline for the ice that remains until we’re faced with a series of catastrophes. The most immediate of which is sea level rise which threatens to eradicate whole nations that are situated on low-lying islands. How do we stop such a problem? While we remedy the longer-term issues around fossil fuel consumption, we might have to buy ourselves more time with geoengineering.
The severity of this situation can’t be stressed enough. Professor John Moore of the Arctic Center, University of Lapland, says that we’re long past the point where emissions reductions alone will be effective. “We are faced with this situation where there’s no pathway to 1.5 [degrees] available through mitigation,” he said. “Things like the ice sheets [melting] and other tipping points will happen regardless,” adding that the Earth’s present situation is akin to a patient bleeding out on the operating table, “we are in this situation where we cannot mitigate ourselves out of the shit.”
Moore is one of the figures behind Frozen Arctic, a report produced by the universities of the Arctic and Lapland alongside UN-backed thinktank GRID-Arendal. It’s a rundown of sixty geoengineering projects that could slow down or reverse polar melting. A team of researchers opted to examine every idea, from those already in place to the ones at the fringes of science. “We wanted to be thorough,” said Moore, “because even the craziest idea might have a nugget of gold in there.” Each approach has been given a brief analysis, examining if it’s feasible on a scientific or practical basis, if it would be potentially helpful and how much it would cost. The report even went so far as to look at pykrete, a wacky World War Two initiative to create artificial glaciers for strategic use by mixing sawdust or paper products into ice.
If you’re curious and don’t have a day or two to read the report yourself, you can boil down the approaches to a handful of categories. The first is Solar Radiation Management, i.e. making the polar regions more reflective to bounce away more of the sun’s heat. Second, there’s artificial ice generation to compensate for what has already been lost. Third, enormous engineering work to buttress, isolate and protect the remaining ice — like massive undersea walls that act as a barrier against the seas as they get warmer. Finally, there are measures that nibble at the edges of the problem in terms of effect, but have more viable long-term success, like preventing flora and fauna (and the warmth they radiate) from encroaching on regions meant to remain frozen.
If you’re a climate scientist, the likely most obvious approach is the first, because we’ve seen the positive effects of it before. Albedo is the climate science term to describe how white ice acts as an enormous reflector, bouncing away a lot of the sun’s heat. Ice ages dramatically increase albedo, but there are more recent examples in living memory: In 1991 Mount Pinatubo, a volcano in the Philippines, erupted, spewing an enormous amount of volcanic ash into the atmosphere. (The event also caused a large amount of damage, displaced 200,000 people and claimed the lives of at least 722.) According to NOAA, the ash dumped into the atmosphere helped reflect a lot of solar heat away from the Earth, causing a temporary global cooling effect of roughly 1.5 degrees celsius. The devastation of Pinatubo isn’t desirable, nor was the ozone depletion that it caused, but that cooling effect could be vital to slowing global warming and polar melting.
It’s possible to do this artificially by seeding the clouds with chemicals deposited by an airplane or with ground-based smoke generators, which can also be used to promote rain clouds. This is a tactic already used in China to help make rain for agriculture and to alleviate drought-like conditions. In this context, the clouds would act as a barrier between the sun and the ice caps, bouncing more of that solar radiation away from the Earth’s surface. Unfortunately, there’s a problem with this approach, which is that it’s incredibly expensive and incredibly fussy. The report says it’s only viable when the right clouds are overhead, and the work would require enormous infrastructure to be built nearby. Not to mention that while we have some small shreds of evidence to suggest it might be useful, there’s nothing proven as yet.
And then there are the second order effects when these approaches then spill over into the rest of the global ecosystem. “If you do sunlight reflection methods and you put anything up in the atmosphere, it doesn’t stay where you put it.” That’s the big issue identified by Dr. Phil Williamson, honorary associate professor at the University of East Anglia and a former contributor to the UN’s keystone Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change reports. His concern is that regional, targeted climate solutions “don’t solve the problem for the whole world,” and that if you’re not tackling climate change on a global scale, then you’re “just accentuating the difference.” With a cold arctic, but rising temperatures elsewhere, you’re climbing aboard a “climate rollercoaster.”
Second in the ranking of hail-mary climate approaches is to build a freezer to both cool down the existing ice and make more. Sadly, many ideas in this area forget that ice sheets are not just big blocks of immovable ice and are, in fact, liable to move. Take the idea of drilling down two miles or so into the ice sheet and pumping out the warm water to cool it down: Thanks to the constantly shifting ice and water, a new site would need to be drilled fairly regularly.
There’s another problem: The report says one project to bore a hole down 2.5km (1.5 miles) burned 450,000 liters of fuel. Not to mention how much energy it would consume to run the heat exchangers or freezers to create fresh ice on such a scale. That's a considerable amount of greenhouse gas pollution for a project meant to undo that exact type of damage. Dumping a layer of artificially-made snow on a mountain may work fine for a ski resort when the powder’s a little thin, but not the whole planet.
As hard as the scientific and engineering battles will be, there’s also the political one that will need addressing. “A lot of people get quasi-religiously upset about putting stuff into the stratosphere,” said Professor John Moore, “you’d think they’d get similarly upset about greenhouse gasses.” One strategy under consideration is to inject sulfur into the atmosphere to replicate the cooling effects observed after major volcanic eruptions. The sulfur would form SO2, creating thick layers of dense cloud to block more heat from reaching the ice. But if you, like me, have a high school-level knowledge of science, that’s a scary prospect given that sulfur dioxide would resolve to sulfuric acid. Given the microscopic quantities involved, there would be little-to-no impact on the natural world. But the image of acid rain pouring down from the clouds means it’d be a hard sell to an uninformed population.
But if there is a reason for concern, it’s that any unintended consequences could pose a problem in the global political space. “It’s almost like declaring war on the rest of the world if [a nation] goes it alone,” says Phil Williamson, “because any damage or alteration to the global climate system, the country that did it is responsible for all future climatic disasters because the weather isn’t the same.”
Of course, Moore knows that the Frozen Arctic report’s conclusions aren’t too optimistic about a quick fix. He feels its conclusions should serve as a wake-up call for the planet. “Nobody is going to scale up something for the entire arctic ocean overnight,” he said, but that this is the time to “find ideas that might be valuable [...] and then put resources into finding out if [those ideas] really are useful.” He added that the short turnaround time before a total climate disaster isn’t much of an issue, saying “engineers can pretty much do anything you ask them to if you put enough resources into it.” Because the alternative is to do nothing, and “every day that we choose to do nothing, we accept more of the damages that are coming.”
This article originally appeared on Engadget at https://www.engadget.com/the-ice-caps-are-melting-is-geoengineering-the-solution-150004916.html?src=rss
Want some bad news as a lead up to the weekend? NASA just released its annual global temperature report and, lo and behold, 2023 was the hottest year on record since measurements began back in 1880. Global temperatures last year were approximately 2.1 degrees Fahrenheit (1.2 degrees Celsius) above the average for NASA’s baseline period of 1951 to 1980.
Compared to the 1880s, the planet was 2.5 degrees warmer in 2023. If you do the math, you’ll find that the vast majority of that increase occurred after NASA’s baseline period. In other words, the past several decades have been the worst of the worst. July of 2023 was the hottest month ever measured, which is a record nobody wanted or asked for but, well, here we are.
“NASA and NOAA’s global temperature report confirms what billions of people around the world experienced last year; we are facing a climate crisis,” said NASA Administrator Bill Nelson. “From extreme heat, to wildfires, to rising sea levels, we can see our Earth is changing.”
NASA’s not burying its head in the sand and pretending this is a natural phenomenon. We did this, with Gavin Schmidt, director at the Goddard Institute for Space Studies (GISS), saying the temperature shift was primarily caused by “our fossil fuel emissions.”
2023 was not an outlier. The past ten consecutive years have been the warmest on record. To that end, the U.S. National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) recently reported that 2024 has a one-in-three chance of being even hotter. Yay.
It’s also worth noting that 2023 featured some cooling events that actually worked to lower temperatures a bit, including volcanic aerosols in the atmosphere due to the January 2022 eruption of the Hunga Tonga-Hunga Ha’apai underwater volcano. However, these events couldn’t keep up with constant greenhouse gas emissions and the heating effects of this year’s El Niño weather event.
“We will continue to break records as long as greenhouse gas emissions keep going up,” Schmidt said. “And, unfortunately, we just set a new record for greenhouse gas emissions again this past year.”
The Biden-Harris administration has done a few things to try to slow down our transformation into a Mad Max dystopia. The White House recently launched the U.S. Greenhouse Gas Center to make critical climate data readily available and last year’s Inflation Reduction Act set aside $369 billion for climate and clean energy programs. President Biden has also pledged to bring emission levels to at least 50 percent below what we experienced in 2005 by 2025. These are good incremental moves, of that there’s no doubt, but we seem to have sped past “f*ck around” and are careening wildly into “find out.” What was that curse again? Oh yeah. May you live in interesting times.
This article originally appeared on Engadget at https://www.engadget.com/nasa-confirms-2023-was-the-hottest-year-on-record-193626460.html?src=rss
The UN has set out a pathway to avoiding the very worst effects of climate change. Earlier this week, delegates from around the world ratified a document setting out what we need to do, and when. Even better, the text finally ended the decades-long omerta of never talking about the impact fossil fuels have had on our environment. It’s a landmark moment in history and one that means we can have hope for the future of humanity. Unless, that is, you spend any time examining the substance of the deal to see if the expectations meet the reality. Because then you’ll see that while it’s not all doom and gloom, it’s certainly not the bold action we really need.
Context
All of this took place at the Conference of the Parties (COP) an annual, UN-backed conference to build international consensus on climate change. Delegates from all UN member states, as well as bodies like the EU, all meet at a host city for two weeks to speedrun something that looks a lot like a treaty. The 28th such event was hosted in Dubai, which attracted plenty of criticism given the emirate’s fossil fuel wealth. Its president was Sultan Al Jaber, UAE minister of industry and, uh, the head of the Abu Dhabi National Oil company.
The perception that the event would be a fossil fuel industry stitch-up wasn’t helped when BBC News reported the UAE secretly planned to use the event to strike new oil and gas deals. Or that Al Jaber was quoted by The Guardian saying there was “no science” supporting the idea that a phase out of fossil fuels was necessary to prevent further warming. He later said his comment had been taken out of context and that he supported work to reduce fossil fuel use.
For all the light and heat around COP, it’s not as powerful as you might hope or think, since there is no real enforcement mechanism. The parties (should) negotiate in good faith but if nations don’t actually follow through on their promises, there’s no mechanism to address it. Diplomacy is a delicate art, especially with so many moving pieces, so maybe we should all learn to appreciate the subtleties. That’s the positive case.
The negative one being that COP28 has been more theater than politics. Anne Rasmussen, representing the Alliance of Small Island States, pointed out her group wasn’t even in the room when the declaration was ratified. Ironic, given that the event was dubbed as “the most inclusive COP to-date, ensuring all voices could participate in the process.” During the plenary, Rasmussen said the text, approved in her absence, doesn’t go far enough in several ways and carries a “litany of loopholes” for wealthy nations to delay, or avoid their responsibilities.
TL;DR
The text opens with a long introductory section admitting that humanity as a whole hasn’t been doing a good enough job. It admits humans are responsible for raising the Earth’s temperature by at least 1.1 degrees celsius, and we’re on the hook to fix it. And the 1.5 degrees celsius limit agreed in Paris in 2015 isn’t going to happen unless we really start putting the work in right now. It adds that while the technology is there, we haven’t made enough use of it, and that plenty of small island nations and countries in the developing world will bear the brunt of our inaction.
1: The Task at Hand
Because we’ve dragged our feet for so long, the extent of action needed to limit warming to 1.5 degrees celsius will be stark. (And 1.5 degrees isn’t maintaining the status quo but the limit that keeps the slew of natural disasters it precipitates from becoming biblical.) Humanity needs to reduce global greenhouse gas emissions by 42 percent by 2030, and 60 percent by 2035. To get a sense of that task, we emitted around 60 gigatonnes of CO2 in 2019, and now we’ve got a decade to cut it by more than a half. Should we reach that ambitious target, we then need to repeat the same feat even faster to ensure we reach net zero emissions by 2050. Even though most climate scientists I’ve spoken to feel that the 2050 deadline is far too late.
2: The Loopholes
Rasmussen already highlighted that the goals laid out in the text are hazy, more guidelines than real processes. They’re written with the caveat that nations should contribute to the overall goal in a “nationally determined manner.” On one hand, that respects “their different national circumstances, pathways and approaches.” On the other, it allows some nations to pass off insufficient work as them doing their part without consequence.
3: Tripling global renewable energy capacity by 2030
One of the biggest pledges in the document is to triple renewable energy generation capacity by 2030. Data from the International Renewable Energy Agency says that in 2022 that figure stood at 3,371,793 MW. So, we’ve got six years or so to manufacture and build 6,743,586 MW of renewable energy, from wind turbines, solar panels, nuclear and the rest. Simple, right?
Not so much. Not to denigrate the work that’s already been going on, but we’re nowhere near that level. Between 2021 and 2022, the world got a little under 300,000 MW of new renewable generation up and running. To lay even one finger on the target COP28 has set down, the world needs to be averaging closer to 1.2 million MW every single year.
But, and here’s the thing – these figures don’t actually feature in the ratified version of the text at all. I’ve done the math from the 2022 figures because that seems relevant but the text itself has no baseline, or any frame of reference at all. It’s conceivable a bad actor could say they’ve tripled domestic renewables work from an earlier date, or start their count from zero.
4: Transitioning away from fossil fuels in energy systems
You’ll have seen plenty of the headlines out of COP28 commenting this is the first declaration to explicitly mention fossil fuels in its text. It’s wild to think we’ve had nearly three decades of these summits and everyone has chosen to just look the other way until now. You can see how tightly these points have been massaged and lawyered to make sure while the elephant in the room has been pointed out, it’s still very welcome to stay. It can continue to knock over the furniture and drop big piles of dung, too, so long as certain folks keep making money.
One clause pledges to speed up efforts to “phase down unabated coal power,” which means plants that gesture toward carbon capture aren’t targeted. The fact that the deal doesn’t call for a near-instantaneous blanket ban on coal burning boggles the mind given the science at hand. After all, coal isn’t just the worst fossil fuel, it’s the most environmentally harmful: if you burn one ton of coal, you’ll actually create more than twice that amount of CO2. Earlier this year, the International Energy Agency said that global CO2 emissions from coal power increased by two percent, reaching “a new high in 2022.”
Another clause pledges an acceleration toward “net zero emission energy systems” that use “zero and low carbon fuels” before 2050. And then there's the big one — a clause talking about a transition away from “fossil fuels in energy systems” in a “just, orderly and equitable manner.” I’m enough of a cynic to think those phrases can be bent miles out of shape, and the fact there’s no benchmarks or enforcement mechanisms means that, for now, it’s all just cheap, sweet words.
Then we’ve got a push for other low-emission technologies which, alongside renewables and nuclear, include “abatement and removal” like carbon capture and low-carbon hydrogen. It’s fair to say that those last two should be treated like the mythical unicorns they really are. After all, abundant, low-carbon hydrogen created with renewable energy is a technological cul-de-sac. And while it’s fair to say (mechanical) carbon capture is still relatively new, data from the Institute for Energy Economics and Financial Analysis suggests it’s a non-starter.
It’s hard not to be cynical watching entities with a vested interest in the status quo gesture toward these projects when they're likely to use them as license to stick with business as usual. If there’s one good point in this part, it’s that there’s a pledge to “substantially” reduce the volume of non carbon dioxide emissions. It specifically namechecks methane, a greenhouse gas that is significantly more damaging than CO2 in the short term. There’s also a reference to cutting emissions in road transport by pushing infrastructure for low and zero-emission vehicles.
As notable as the mention of fossil fuels was, the declaration also “recognizes that transition fuels can play a role in facilitating the energy transition while ensuring energy security.” To you and me, that means countries can continue to exploit and burn fossil fuels like natural gas. Now, gas is better than coal for greenhouse gas emissions, but it’s a bit like saying you’ll only burn down the ground floor of your home rather than the whole thing. Not to mention that natural gas is predominantly made up of methane, that thing we’re also meant to be reducing.
5: The rest
Much of the work at COP28 was focused on broader issues, including making sure the financial gravity of the situation was addressed. There was a lot of negotiation around various monetary tools and funds that could be used to incentivize responsible emissions reduction. There were also pledges made for international co-operation, knowledge sharing and protecting economic growth. One clause that did leap out was a pledge to phase out “inefficient” fossil fuel subsidies that “do not address energy poverty or just transitions,” which is similarly weak in its definition. And while there are gestures toward halting deforestation and restoring the natural environment, there’s little substance. One section invites — invites! — parties to “preserve and restore oceans and coastal ecosystems.”
Reactions
Dr Phil Williamson, Honorary Associate Professor in Environmental Science at the University at East Anglia said that COP28’s declaration “represents modest political process, recognising what has been scientifically obvious for at least 30 years.” And it’s this point that probably needs highlighting given how many Very Serious People will likely hail COP28 as a landmark. Yes, it’s a massive achievement to finally mention that fossil fuels are the reason we’re in this mess. But the fact it’s taken so long for us to even be confident enough talking about the problem means we now have almost no time to do the work to get us out of it.
This article originally appeared on Engadget at https://www.engadget.com/time-to-get-miserable-about-the-cop28-declaration-174527863.html?src=rss